Not sure whether I am jaded or optimistic, but reading that the Pacific Northwest has an “equal chance” of above, near, or below-average temperatures makes me think we have a two out of three chances of having a decent winter.
This information came from our friends at the Columbia Basin Bulletin, and is a clearing house of information affecting the Northwest’s climate and wildlife. “This winter will likely to see above-average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, particularly over Montana and northern Wyoming.”
Since Idaho is kind of between the Northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest, I want to align us with Rockies this time.
The report went on to explain that sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been near average since spring 2012, which forecasters expect that continue through winter, and neither El Niño nor La Niña is expected to influence the winter climate.
“It’s a challenge to produce a long-term winter forecast without the climate pattern of an El Niño or a La Niña in place out in the Pacific because those climate patterns often strongly influence winter temperature and precipitation here in the United States,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Without this strong seasonal influence, winter weather is often affected by short-term climate patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation, that are not predictable beyond a week or two. So it’s important to pay attention to your local daily weather forecast throughout the winter.”
See the long-winded version here: HERE.